Observations about the world, part five

Photograph of the Atlas globe

Will the ceasefire in the Middle East last?
Tuesday – October 14, 2025

While I'm not a fortune teller I do believe that I can make some predictions about the Middle East, in this case the Israel-Palestine conflict. Let's just look into the history of Palestine. The State of Israel was officially established in 1947 on the behest of the newly founded United Nations organization following WWII. Of course, creating this nation-state in Palestine didn't happen easily or overnight, and a lot of force, violence, and war was required in order to really establish a Jewish foothold in Palestine. Of course, there have always been Jews in Palestine, Israel, or Canaan as it's referred to as in the Old Testament. I am an anti-nationalist so I do not support the creation of Israel or indeed the creation of any states, particularly nation-states, but that doesn't really have a real world impact; Israel is a nation-state that exists today just like any other nation-state and that that extend I am not more or less in favor of the State of Israel. Of course, this is often how things turn out when it comes to nation-states, the winner of any war wins it all, and he gets to decide the future and this is surely the case in Palestine. If there's ever going to be a Palestinian State with sovereignty over that land, the most realistic approach would be for the Palestinians to appease the Israelis, because as long as Israel remains more powerful, they will simply not allow for the creation of a Palestinian state, unless they get more benefits out of doing that. Indeed, this was true as well with the creation of Ireland a century ago: if the British had wanted to, they could've wiped out any hope for an independent Ireland, and indeed up to that point the British had done so, but by the end of WWI the pressure from the world and form Ireland itself created a situation where it basically became less expensive and more expedient for the British to simply allow for the independence of Ireland, but don't believe that this happened only due to the determination of the Irish people. Again, just to clarify: I am not in favor of any states, I am an anarchist and I believe all modern states to be fundamentally illegitimate and evil modernistic constructions that at some point will be abolished, but I believe that states will likely slowly fade into the emerging post-human paradigm, but more on that at another time.

    First and foremost, what's going on in Israel right now? Well, at the moment there's a ceasefire being put into place between the both sides, Israel and Hamas, and so far, as I'm writing this, everything seems to be going the way of peace, but whether or not this ceasefire can actually last is another question. I believe that for peace to last there has to actually be a real incentive on both sides to want peace, and I'm not so sure that this is the case. Well, partly I do have a hard time to gather what the intentions of both sides could be, and this is largely due to the dystopian post-modernist informational landscape, where objective truth itself has become pushed out by enormous amounts of misinformation and propaganda meant to manipulate people into thinking that they can't know what objective truth is, and this is surely the case with me; I am not immune from this. So again, if there's a real incentive for both sides to keep the peace, I believe that the peace will last. I suspect that Hamas doesn't have much to say or do at this point, so it would seem to me that Hamas doesn't have much choice at this point but to go along with the peace, and this seems to be what they've been doing so far. What about the Israeli side? Well, I don't know what the Israeli incentive would be in continuing the war, except following the potential routes of all sorts of conspiratorial noise. I guess that Israel could attempt to annex the Gaza strip, but this would seem to just cause more and greater problems for Israel, because those 2 million people that inhabit the Gaza strip aren't going to go away without being pushed out, and this just seems unlikely at the moment, especially considering the growing international pressure on Israel to calm down and really to climb down. I believe that this ceasefire will last for now, but I believe that it wouldn't take too much to break it, because I'm just not that sure that the Israelis are going to be willing to allow another major terrorist attack to happen again by being negligent, and I certainly don't believe that a Palestinian state is in the cards anytime soon, that will take many more years.

    In the end, I don't know if the temporary peace will actually lats in Palestine, but I do believe that latest episode has showcased the inhumane and glowingly inhumane tactics of modern war, something I mentioned in my first post on this page: modern warfare is simply a shameful exercise in idolatry.

Reginald Drax – October 14, 2025.